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Evaluating the consistency between Ireland鈥檚 carbon budget-aligned energy system pathways and EU energy and climate targets

This study assesses the alignment of Ireland鈥檚 energy system decarbonisation pathways 鈥 developed using the TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM) and aligned with approved and adopted national CBs - with EU climate and energy targets for 2030 and 2040. The analysis focuses on a composite 鈥淭IM-CBaligned鈥 pathway, representing the weighted average of scenarios underpinning Ireland鈥檚 third and fourth CB proposals, alongside current and planned policy scenarios.

Authors

Ciara Doherty, Dr. Vahid Aryanpur & Prof Hannah Daly

Year
2026
Journal Name
Environmental Research: Energy
Category
Journal Article
Keywords
Carbon Budgets, EU Targets, Decarbonisation, Climate Neutrality
Link to Publication
/en/media/research/energypolicyandmodellinggroup/Dohertyetal_2026_Environ._Res.__Energy_10.1088_2753-3751_ae4a2b.pdf

Abstract

Ireland鈥檚 climate legislation mandates greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions consistent with the Paris Agreement, implemented through legally binding carbon budgets (CBs) targeting a 51% reduction by 2030, relative to 2018, and climate neutrality by 2050. As an EU Member State, Ireland must also meet obligations under European climate and energy legislation, including the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED), and the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR). The extent to which national policy frameworks, such as Ireland鈥檚 domestic CBs, align with EU obligations is underexplored.

Energy Policy and Modelling Group

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